A Survey of Expert Opinion on the Environmental Impact of Road Freight Transport in the Uk in 2020

Concern has been mounting over the environmental impact of freight transport, particularly over the contribution of CO2 emissions from heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) to global warming. In its Sustainable Distribution document and subsequent policy statements the British government has identified a series of policy measures designed to make logistical operations more sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. However, in order to assess the net impact of these measures it is necessary to construct a reliable business-as-usual (BAU) scenario which would occur in the absence of new policy initiatives. This paper reports on the preliminary results of a Delphi study undertaken in order to produce an expert forecast of future developments in supply chain structure, modal split, vehicle utilisation and fuel management up to 2020.